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Our outlook for real assets for the second half of 2025 is available here.
Source: MBA, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: RCA, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our outlook for private equity for the second half of 2025 is available here.
Note: The calculation takes 5-year annualized and 10-year annualized returns for every 5-and 10-year window with sample starting in 2000 to 2024 and averaging returns over time. Sources: Preqin, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis, based on Vortexa tanker tracking and Panama Canal, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis based on Vortexa, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis based on Vortexa, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Data as of 2023. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis based on Vortexa, Apollo Chief Economist 
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Higher oil prices, higher tariffs, and restrictions on immigration are putting downward pressure on GDP growth and upward pressure on inflation. Lower GDP growth and higher inflation is the definition of stagflation.
The upward pressure on inflation is limiting how much the Fed can cut interest rates later this year. As a result, all-in yields will stay higher for longer, which will continue to support fixed income assets, including private credit.
We have published our consolidated views in my newest white paper, Mid-Year Outlook: At the Crossroads of Stagflation—What’s Next? You can download it here.
I will also be discussing the contents of the paper and my views in detail in an Apollo Academy class today at 11:00 ET (eligible for a CE credit). Register here. The class will be available on demand afterward.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The Census conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks, see chart below. Nine percent of firms reported using AI, and the rising trend in AI adoption increases the likelihood of a rise in productivity over the coming quarters.
Note: AI adoption rate answers the question: In the last two weeks, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing goods or services? Examples of AI: machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, voice recognition, etc. Sources: US Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are significant differences in student loan delinquency rates by state, see chart below.
Sources: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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As we approach the Trump administration’s self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade deals, markets are starting to speculate about what comes next. The longer uncertainty remains elevated, the more negative its impact on the economy, as shown in the chart below.
Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade.
Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.
This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.
Note: Impulse response from the VAR model with variables log (Real GDP) and log (Economic Policy Uncertainty Index). One standard deviation shock to Economic policy uncertainty leads to a 0.2% point decline in Real GDP. Temporary shock is defined as four standard deviation shock in Q1 and permanent shock is defined as four standard deviation in Q1, three standard deviation in Q2, two standard deviation in Q3 and one standard deviation in Q4. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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To calculate CPI inflation, BLS teams collect about 90,000 price quotes every month covering 200 different item categories, and there are several hundred field collectors active across 75 urban areas.
When data is not available, BLS staff typically develop estimates for approximately 10% of the cells in the CPI calculation. However, in May, the share of data in the CPI that is estimated increased to 30%, see chart below.
In other words, almost a third of the prices going into the CPI at the moment are guesses based on other data collections in the CPI.
Note: Different cell imputation is where uncollected prices are imputed from collected prices of the same item in other geographic areas or from collected prices of related item categories in the same geographic area. Sources: BLS, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Active managers in public markets have largely not been able to beat their index, see here and here.
As a result, modern asset allocation is moving to a model where fixed income replacement plays a key role as generator of alpha in portfolios, see chart below.
Source: Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Foreigners have steadily increased their holdings of US equities and currently own 18% of the US stock market, see chart below.
This is the mirror image of a trade deficit. Foreigners selling goods to the US receive dollars in return, which are then used to purchase US assets, including US equities.
If the trade deficit is eliminated, there will be fewer dollars for foreigners to recycle into the S&P 500.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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