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Home prices are falling in London, see chart below.
Sources: UK Land Registry, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Seventy-three percent of bonds in the world trade at a yield of less than 5%, see chart below. There is only beta in public credit markets, and with the total amount of public credit outstanding at $12 trillion and only $15 billion in dealer inventory, there is little liquidity in public credit markets, see charts below. Our latest credit market outlook is available here.
Note: Data as of May 28, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: ICE BofAML, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Ticker used for HY is H0A0 Index and for IG it is C0A0 Index and for Loans it is SPBDALB Index. Sources: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, PitchBook LCD, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The US sovereign CDS spread is currently trading at levels similar to countries that are rated BBB+, such as Italy and Greece, see chart below. For solutions to the US fiscal challenges see here and here.
Data as of May 27, 2025. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The chart below shows the underperformance of active managers in public equities by strategy. The bottom line is that over the past 10 years, 80% to 90% of active managers have underperformed their benchmarks across all strategies. For more, see the S&P SPIVA data here.
Note: Data as of December 31, 2024. Sources: SPIVA scorecard, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Data center construction added one percentage point to GDP growth in the first quarter, see chart below. This will be a strong tailwind to US economic growth over the coming years.
Note: pp = percentage points. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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American workers work from home on average 1.6 days per week, which is more than workers in Italy, France, and China, see chart below.
Sources: WFH Research, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Inflation has for several years been moving down toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But the consensus now expects inflation to rise over the coming quarters, driven by tariffs and by upward pressure on housing inflation, see charts below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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It’s been nearly two weeks since the China/US trade deal, but container traffic from China to the US hasn’t shown a strong rebound, see chart below.
This raises the question: Are 30% tariffs on China still too high? Or are US companies simply waiting to see if tariffs will drop further before ramping up shipments?
Note: Displays the estimated number of container vessels departing China for the United States, focusing on dry cargo ships. Aggregates data using a 15-day moving average to reduce short-term volatility and to provide a clearer view of broader trends in vessel activity. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Weekly data for homebuilder traffic points to a weak spring selling season, driven by mortgage rates near 7%, record-low consumer confidence, and a rising inventory of homes for sale, see chart below.
Sources: Zonda, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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When the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022, the Magnificent 7 stopped hiring more workers, see chart below.
Why is the tech sector so vulnerable to higher interest rates? First, tech firms are priced to deliver cash flows far out in the future, which makes tech companies more vulnerable to changes in the discount rate. Second, tech firms often need to borrow to finance multi-year projects, which also makes them more vulnerable to higher interest rates. Third, when interest rates are high, general risk appetite among investors is low, as investors can generate higher returns in fixed income.
The bottom line is that the bubble in AI valuations was simply the result of a long period with zero interest rates.
With upward pressures on inflation coming from tariffs, deglobalization, and demographics, interest rates will remain high and continue to be a headwind to tech and growth for the coming years.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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