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In 1963, 33 million babies were born in China. In 2024, there were 9 million, see chart below.
Sources: United Nations, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Equity returns over the past five years are all about the Magnificent Seven versus everyone else, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Fed balance sheet reduction and heavy T-bill issuance are putting upward pressure on spreads in money markets, see charts below.
The ongoing government shutdown has amplified this dynamic, as the Treasury General Account balance has risen with delayed federal spending, further draining reserves from the banking system.
With fewer reserves, funding markets face heightened competition for cash, pushing SOFR and TGCR above the IORB.
Money market funds shifting from the Fed’s reverse repo facility to higher-yielding assets, combined with year-end balance sheet constraints, are adding to the strain.
The bottom line is that the financial system is nearing the point where reserves are no longer ample. We are watching this development very closely because if rates volatility in funding markets persists, it could begin to have consequences for credit markets.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: SIFMA (Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Plotting the Warren Buffet indicator (US stock market cap to GDP) versus the Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio shows that the S&P 500 today is at historically extreme valuations, see chart below.
Sources: WDI, Robert Shiller, Macrobond, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Since earlier this year, earnings expectations have increased for the Magnificent Seven and declined for the S&P 493, see charts below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Alternative indicators from Revelio Labs, ADP, Challenger, MacroEdge, LinkUp, Indeed, Paychex, NFIB, San Francisco Fed and state-level jobless claims show a labor market that is still doing well.
Most importantly, there are no signs of a sudden rise in unemployment for cyclical reasons or AI reasons.
Our chart book with alternative indicators for the labor market is available here.
Note: Data represent the count of US states (including DC) experiencing accelerating unemployment as defined in Garimella, Jordà & Singh (2025). Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: Revelio Labs, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Notes: MacroEdge job-cuts tracker aggregates public job-cut announcements using four inputs: DailyJobCuts.com, state WARN notices, TrueUp, and Google News.
Challenger Gray & Christmas data are compiled from company press releases, news reports, and SEC filings. Sources: MacroEdge, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Sources: ADP, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Notes: The LinkUp 10,000 index captures the sum of US job openings from the top 10,000 global employers with the most US-based job openings. Sources: LinkUp, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Roughly 25% of the US adult population have a FICO score below 660, see chart below.
Sources: Equifax, Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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A smaller and smaller share of all tech jobs in the US are in California, see chart below.
Note: Tech jobs are defined as total employment across (1) computer systems design and related services; (2) computer and electronic product manufacturing; (3) software publishers; (4) computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting and related services; (5) media streaming distribution services, social networks and other media networks and content providers, and (6) web search portals, libraries, archives and other information services. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The current debate about electricity prices is misguided. Inflation in electricity prices needs to be compared with inflation in the overall CPI, and over the past decade, electricity prices have increased exactly as fast as the overall price level in the economy, see chart below.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Since the beginning of the year, profit margins have increased for the Magnificent Seven and declined for everyone else, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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