Consensus Sees 65% Probability of Hard Landing in the US

Apollo Chief Economist

Since the beginning of this year, the consensus has lowered the probability of a recession in Europe and UK. But for the US, the recession probability has remained constant at 65%. In fact, the consensus now thinks there is a higher probability of a recession in the US in the next 12 months than in Europe and UK, see chart below.

Consensus expectations for recession is higher for the US than for Europe and UK.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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