Blogs
The gap between Fed pricing and long rates continues to widen, suggesting that factors other than Fed expectations, likely including...
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The consensus has in recent weeks lowered the outlook for consumer spending modestly, see chart below. If the economy starts...
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During recessions, Treasury issuance shifts to T-bills, partly because during recessions, short rates are low and T-bills are a cheap...
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Let’s assume that the economy is finally slowing down. If it took the Fed two years to slow the economy...
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Small-cap companies have a higher share of floating rate debt, see the first chart. Specifically, floating rate debt as a...
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There is extreme disagreement among households about the long-term inflation outlook and whether the Fed will keep inflation under control...
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Every Saturday going forward, we will provide an updated chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy....
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The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment shows that a record-high 30% of the population has stocks worth more...
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The market is making the same mistake it made in January when it priced in six cuts. Looking at the...
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The housing recovery continues, driven by a low supply of homes for sale. Demand for housing is more complicated. High...
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