The last Fed hike was in July.
If this was the last Fed hike during this cycle, and assuming it takes on average eight months from the last Fed hike to the first Fed cut, then the Fed will start cutting rates in March 2024, see chart below.
The big difference today is that inflation remains significantly above the FOMC’s 2% target. This may lead the Fed to keep rates high, even if the economic data starts to slow down more meaningfully.
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