Global Long Term Interest Rates Going Down

Apollo Chief Economist

There is a market narrative that European governments are spending more on defense spending and the ECB is doing QT, and this will push yields higher on European government bonds. 

The problem with this story is that US long rates are going down because the Fed will soon pause, and European inflation is going down, see chart below. Combined with European inflation being mainly energy, where the 12-month change will roll over in March 2023, the net effect is that US rates going down and inflation in the US and Europe going down will likely dominate the idiosyncratic stories in Europe. 

As a result, global government bond yields will likely decline, including in Europe. The fundamental reason is that inflation will be less and less of a problem as we go through 2023, and the move lower in global rates will be particularly significant if we get a recession in the US.

European inflation rolling over
Source: Bloomberg, Eurostat, Apollo Chief Economist

This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.