2024: Lagged Effects of Fed Hikes Versus the Fed Pivot

Apollo Chief Economist

The Fed pivot in December parallels what happened a decade ago.

In 2013, the taper tantrum triggered a quick tightening in financial conditions due to a modest change in Fed communication.

Today, we are seeing a similar significant change in financial conditions on the back of a modest shift in Fed communication, but with the opposite sign.

The Fed pivot in December was a modest change in Fed communication, but the subsequent easing in financial conditions has been dramatic.

As a result, 2024 will be the year of the lagged effects of Fed hikes versus the Fed pivot. If the Fed pivot continues to push mortgage rates lower, stock prices higher, and credit spreads tighter, we could get a solid rebound in the economy over the coming months, particularly in housing, which will trigger a rebound in employment growth, see chart below.

If housing rebounds, we will have a rebound in housing-related employment
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

Download hi-res chart(s)

This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.