Outlook for China

Apollo Chief Economist

Our latest outlook for China is available here.

The consensus predicts a decline in China’s growth from its current rate of around 5% to 4% next year.

The forces pulling growth down are the ongoing trade war with the US, the deflating housing bubble, and demographic headwinds as the lagged effects of the one-child policy continue to shrink the working-age population. 

Outlook for China
Housing market cooling in China
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
China: Market capitalization of real estate developers has declined significantly
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist (Data as of June 2024)
Chinese share of exports to US, EU, and Japan declining
Sources: China General Administration of Customs (GAC), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

Download high-res chart book


This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.