QT Impact on 10s

Apollo Chief Economist

The Fed is going to shrink its holdings of Treasuries by $60bn a month and using the estimates in this Fed working paper, quantifying the stock effect shows that this decline in the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to increase the level of 10-year rates by 50bps by the end of this year. The rule of thumb from the Fed’s work is that for every $100bn in QT 10-year rates will rise by 10bps. The bottom line is that QE pushed rates down and markets should expect QT to push rates higher.

Chart showing the end of asset purchases from major central banks
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Pace of purchases for 2021: BOE: £3.4bn per week till mid December 2021, FED: USD120bn per month with wind down from December with purchases ending in March 2022, ECB: Euro 90bn per month (20 bn APP + 60 bn PEPP), PEPP till March 2022, Euro 40bn in April, Euro 30bn in May and Euro 20bn in June, and euro 20bn per month onwards. BOJ:: USD 70bn per month. For 2022: All programs are expected to wind down linearly from January 2022 to December 2022. Fed QT $ 95 per month from May 2022.

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