Slowdown Watch

I think there is a 75% chance we will have a recession. It is just not happening yet. Our high-frequency indicators show that air travel is still strong, hotel occupancy rates are high, restaurant bookings are strong, credit card spending is still strong, and the weekly data for bank lending is also trending higher.

Weekly jobless claims have started to move slightly higher in recent weeks, but this is consistent with the seasonal pattern. The weekly mortgage purchase applications data is modestly weaker, and we are watching the housing market very carefully.

The Fed’s goal is to cool down all these indicators, and they will ultimately succeed, so investors should continue to prepare for the coming slowdown.

View the slowdown report for May 21.

Chart showing strong traffic at TSA checkpoints
Source: TSA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing strong hotel occupancy
Source: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing robust restaurant bookings across major US cities and the overall nation
Source: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist

Charts showing continued declines in first-time and continuing jobless claims
Source: Department of Labor, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Chart showing that mortgage applications have come down as rates moved higher
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing housing inventories may have bottom but are still at a low level
Source: Redfin, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing a pickup in the loan growth of commercial banks
Source: FRB, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist