Slowdown Watch

Apollo Chief Economist

Our chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy is available here, and the bottom line is that there are still no signs of the US consumer slowing down.

Most importantly, container freight rates continue to decline, and combined with falling commodity prices, this will put downward pressure on inflation over the coming months. With this backdrop, the probability is rising that we will soon have the peak in inflation behind us.

Other noteworthy charts this week are the increase in mortgage purchase applications and the trend increase in movie theatre visits driven by Top Gun and Jurassic World Dominion.

Chart showing container freight rates across major routes are falling
Source: WCI, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing that a rise in weekly mortgage applications may suggest inflation has peaked
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing rising box office receipts, a sign that consumers are not slowing down
Source:, Apollo Chief Economist

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