Slowdown Watch

Apollo Chief Economist

We have updated our attached daily and weekly indicators for the US economy, and the daily data for airline travel, consumer mobility, and restaurant bookings are still not showing signs of a slowdown.

The weekly data for hotel occupancy rates is also solid, and weekly jobless claims continue to decline, suggesting that the labor market is still strong. Weekly data for cinema visits is also strong, and so is the weekly data for bank lending and the weekly data for credit and debit card usage.

There are some early signs of weakness in the housing market, with the weekly data for listings starting to trend higher in recent weeks. Traffic of prospective home buyers is also starting to come down.

At the anecdotal level, there are more sound bites about layoffs in tech and startups, but these anecdotes are not yet visible in the macro data.

The bottom line is that the economy is still strong, and the Fed needs to tighten financial conditions further to slow growth and inflation.

Download the PDF

This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.