Strong Economy, but Weak Labor Market Because of Lower Immigration?

Apollo Chief Economist

Daily and weekly data for the US economy shows that:

1) Trade policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels

2) Economic policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels

3) Restaurant bookings remain solid

4) US air travel remains robust

5) Las Vegas visitor volumes and total nights occupied remain solid

6) Same-store retail sales remain solid

7) Hotel bookings remain solid

8) Banks’ loan growth is increasing

9) Bankruptcy filings are stable

10) Broadway attendance and visits to the Statue of Liberty remain at normal levels

Maybe the reason the labor market is softening is because of lower immigration and not because of a slowdown in the broader economy?

Trade policy uncertainty improving
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Economic policy uncertainty improving
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Consumer expectations to business conditions
Sources: Conference Board, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Daily data for restaurant bookings
Sources: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist
Daily data for US air travel
Sources: US Department of Homeland Security, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Las Vegas tourism
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Weekly data for same-store retail sales
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Weekly data for hotel demand
Sources: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Weekly loan growth for banks
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Weekly bankruptcy filings
Note: Filings are for companies with more than $50 mn in liabilities. For week ending on September 4th, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Weekly Broadway show attendance
Sources: The Broadway League, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Visits to the Statue of Liberty
Sources: irma.nps.gov, Apollo Chief Economist

Download daily and weekly chart book


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