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The amount of money in passive investing continues to grow, see charts below.
There are three consequences of this development:
1) Reduced market efficiency and price discovery
2) Increased market concentration and volatility
3) Growing correlation and systemic risk
For more discussion, see here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is rising for men and falling for women, see chart below.
Note: This data is based on IPUMS-CPS microdata (monthly CPS basic 2000 – present). Sample restricted to 22–27-year-olds with BA+, unemployment rates weighted by CPS survey weights and smoothed with 3 month rolling average. Source: Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are currently 7.4 million unemployed people and 7.2 million job openings, see chart below.
It is the first time since 2021 when we have had more unemployed than job openings.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are fiscal challenges in most countries, and government debt levels, yield levels and the term premium are rising across the G7, see charts below.
This raises questions about debt sustainability and the ability of governments to repay their debt, particularly in Europe and Japan, where growth is structurally weak due to demographics and years of policy choices that have dampened growth.
What are the consequences if the risk-free asset is no longer risk-free?
1) Higher government borrowing costs and, as a result, higher borrowing costs for consumers and firms.
2) Loss of monetary policy effectiveness, as cuts by the central bank don’t lower long-term interest rates.
3) Financial instability, because the risk-free rate is used for valuing assets and pricing risk.
In extreme cases, the central bank may decide to do YCC or QE to lower long-term interest rates. But this comes at the risk of a dramatic depreciation of the currency, as the central bank essentially intervenes to support fiscal policy and, as a result, the central bank loses credibility among investors.
For more discussion see here, here and here.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: The NY Fed measure for the term premium is based on a five-factor, no-arbitrage model. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Daily and weekly data for the US economy shows that:
1) Trade policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
2) Economic policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
3) Restaurant bookings remain solid
4) US air travel remains robust
5) Las Vegas visitor volumes and total nights occupied remain solid
6) Same-store retail sales remain solid
7) Hotel bookings remain solid
8) Banks’ loan growth is increasing
9) Bankruptcy filings are stable
10) Broadway attendance and visits to the Statue of Liberty remain at normal levels
Maybe the reason the labor market is softening is because of lower immigration and not because of a slowdown in the broader economy?
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Conference Board, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Department of Homeland Security, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Filings are for companies with more than $50 mn in liabilities. For week ending on September 4th, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: The Broadway League, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: irma.nps.gov, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Daily data for consumer spending shows growth is slowing in discretionaries and on goods that are impacted by tariffs, see tables below.
Our chart book with daily data for consumer spending is available here.
Note: Stable is defined as growth falling between 0.5 to -0.5 standard deviation of the past 90 days, rising momentum is higher than 0.5 standard deviation and falling momentum is -0.5 standard deviation. Past week ends on 29th August 2025. Sources: US Bloomberg Consumer Spending, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Stable is defined as growth falling between 0.5 to -0.5 standard deviation of the past 90 days, rising momentum is higher than 0.5 standard deviation and falling momentum is -0.5 standard deviation. Past week ends on 29th August 2025. Sources: US Bloomberg Consumer Spending, Apollo Chief Economist. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are fewer public companies to invest in, and firms that decide to do an IPO are getting older and older.
In 1999, the median age of IPOs was five years. In 2022, it was eight years, and today, the median age of IPOs has increased to 14 years, see chart below.
The rise in the age of companies going public is not only a result of the Fed raising interest rates in 2022, but also the consequence of more companies wanting to stay private for longer to avoid the burdens of being public.
Combined with the domination of passive investing, failure of active managers and high correlation in public markets, and high concentration in a few stocks, the reality is that there is no alpha left in public markets.
Sources: Jay Ritter, University of Florida, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book—available here—documents the extreme AI concentration within the S&P 500’s market cap, returns, earnings and capex.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Data as of July 2025. Top 4 and top 10 companies are by market cap. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Hyperscaler companies include Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google. Telecom companies include Level 3 Communications, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Nortel Networks, Verizon, AT&T, Nokia, Cisco Systems, Williams Companies and XO Communications. Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees, see chart below.
The bottom line is that the biweekly Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies.
Note: Data is six-survey moving average. The survey is conducted biweekly. Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Splitting employment growth into tariff-impacted sectors and sectors not directly impacted by tariffs shows that the slowdown in job growth is broad-based, and job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is now negative, see chart below.
Note: Sectors impacted by tariffs include manufacturing, mining and logging, construction, wholesales trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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