When the trade war started in March, the consensus began to revise down expectations for growth.
But as trade deals were signed with different countries over the summer and into the fall, growth expectations have been revised up, see chart below.
Looking ahead, growth is likely to reaccelerate in 2026, driven by lower trade war uncertainty, a lower dollar, and the positive effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which the CBO estimates will boost GDP growth by almost a full percentage point in 2026, mainly because of accelerated depreciation.
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