The employment report for April will come out on Friday, May 2, and some leading indicators suggest we could see a dramatic weakening in the labor market over the coming months.
Importantly, the survey week for the employment report was the week after Liberation Day tariffs were announced. In other words, the establishment survey and the household survey were carried out during a week with extreme levels of uncertainty for businesses.
The consensus expects 130K jobs created in April. There are significant risks the number is going to be lower, perhaps even negative, see chart below.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), University of Michigan, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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