If 3,000 people are deported every day, the labor supply will decline by about 1 million in total in 2025.
Combined with additional immigration restrictions, job growth is slowing down.
If legal immigration continues at current levels and illegal immigration declines to zero, the new level of monthly nonfarm payrolls will be 72,000.
Deportations and immigration restrictions are likely to increase wage growth in agriculture, construction, and leisure & hospitality.
Deportations and immigration restrictions lower demand for housing.
The bottom line is that immigration policy has implications for labor supply, nonfarm payrolls, wages, and housing demand. To better understand these effects, we have compiled a chart book, which is available here.
Note: Calculations use Congressional Budget Office demographic data as well as current Bureau of Labor Statistics reports to project monthly changes in employment. Sources: Congressional Budget Office: The Demographic OutlookSources: US Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Labor StatisticsSources: ICE, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: US Customs and Border ProtectionSource: US Customs and Border Protection
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