The US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

The housing market is recovering, see charts below and this presentation. With core inflation at 5%, this is a problem for the Fed because it will ultimately put upward pressure on housing inflation and make overall inflation more sticky. Maybe the Fed needs not only a softer labor market but also a softer housing market to achieve its goal of getting inflation back to 2%.

Housing market facts
Source: Apollo Chief Economist
US housing listings and inventory are low
Source:, Apollo Chief Economist
Supply of homes for sales is moving lower
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist
The number of people moving continue to trend lower
Source: Census CPS, Apollo Chief Economist
Mortgage rates are moving up
Source: Freddie Mac, BEA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. The effective interest rate (%) reflects the amortization of initial fees and charges over a 10-year period, which is the historical assumption of the average life of a mortgage loan.
Homebuyer traffic is rebounding
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Confidence for homebuyers and homebuilders are rebounding
Source: University of Michigan, NAHB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Home sales are starting to come back
Source: Census Bureau, NAR, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist; Forecast is Bloomberg consensus.
It's starting to become a seller's market again.
Source: University of Michigan, Apollo Chief Economist
Housing inventories are falling across all price levels.
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Home prices are expected to move up.
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Bidding wars are returning
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist

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