US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

High mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand for housing.

But the inventory of new homes for sale remains very low.

Our latest outlook for the US housing market is available here, key charts inserted below.

US Housing Outlook
Why is housing still doing well despite higher mortgage rates?
Source: Apollo Chief Economist
30-year mortgage rates now at 7.5%
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Monthly mortgage payment on a new mortgage
Source: Bloomberg L.P., Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Calculation of monthly payment using the 30-year purchase loan application size and the 30-year effective rate.

Mortgage purchase applications very weak because of high mortgage rates
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Record-low number of homeowners are refinancing their mortgage at the moment
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Very low inventory of homes for sale
Source:, Apollo Chief Economist
Fewer people listing their home for sale at the moment
Source: Redfin, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Structural decline in the share of the US population moving to a new address
Source: Census CPS, Apollo Chief Economist

The total housing inventory per person continues to decline
Source: Census Bureau, FRED, Apollo Chief Economist

Traffic of prospective homebuyers negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Higher mortgage rates also having a negative impact on homebuyer and homebuilder confidence
Source: University of Michigan, NAHB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Existing home sales negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates
Source: Census Bureau, NAR, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist. Forecast is Bloomberg consensus.
Fewer bidding wars recently because of higher mortgage rates
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist
Inventory of expensive homes rising in recent months
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Home price inflation stabilizing
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
It currently takes 8 months on average to build a single-family house
Source: Census, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Single-family homes are one-unit buildings.
Median home sales price now $437K
Source: Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist

This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.