US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

Our latest outlook for the housing market is available here, key charts below.

US housing outlook
Why is housing still doing well?
Source: Apollo Chief Economist
Leading indicators of the housing market
Fewer people listing their home for sale
Source: Redfin, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
The total housing inventory per person continues to decline
Source: Census Bureau, FRED, Apollo Chief Economist
Fewer bidding wars
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist
Higher mortgage rates not yet weighing on home price inflation
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Monthly mortgage payment on a new mortgage has basically doubled since 2021
Source: Bloomberg L.P., Apollo Chief Economist (Note: Calculation of monthly payment using the 30-year purchase loan application size and the 30-year effective rate.)
Very low inventory of homes for sale
Source:, Apollo Chief Economist
Mortgage purchase applications very weak because of high mortgage rates
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Record-low number of homeowners are refinancing their mortgage at the moment
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Homesellers don’t want to sell their house and get new mortgage: The stock of total existing homes for sale moving down
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist
Structural decline in the share of the US population moving to a new address
Source: Census CPS, Apollo Chief Economist
Traffic of prospective homebuyers negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
It currently takes 8 months on average to build a single-family house
Source: Census, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Single-family homes are one-unit buildings.

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