US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

A recovery in the housing market has started, driven by the Fed’s pivot, rising consumer confidence, falling mortgage rates, solid job growth, solid wage growth, and pent-up demand. The Fed will soon be forced to reverse course and be more hawkish. Our latest US housing outlook is available here, key charts inserted below.

US has an estimated deficit of 2.5 million homes
Source: Census, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Rent inflation rising in small cities and elevated in large cities
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Haver Analytics, BLS, S&P, Apollo Chief Economist
Mortgage purchase applications have started to recover
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Residential new listings starting to rebound
Source: Redfin, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
The jump in housing starts points to a jump in new home sales
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Home price inflation solid because of low inventory of homes for sale
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist

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