US Housing Outlook: Slowdown has Started

The charts below show that traffic of prospective buyers of new homes is declining, homebuilder confidence is declining, weekly data for mortgage purchase applications has started to move down, consumer plans to buy a new home have softened, home sales are coming down from their recent peak, leading indicators for home prices are rolling over, and mortgage originations have started to come down, in particular for 30- to 49-year olds. These are all signs that the housing market has started to cool down. This is what the Fed would like to see. The question is if we will get a soft or a hard landing. View the full report.

Chart shows declining home buyer traffic
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Chart showing homebuilder confidence is waning again
Source: NAHB, Apollo Chief Economist
Chart showing slumping mortgage applications as interest rates have rebounded
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist