Will 2024 Be a Repeat of 2023?

Apollo Chief Economist

The story in markets in 2023 was that US growth expectations were first revised down and then revised up after the easing in financial conditions following SVB in March, see the first chart below.

With the significant easing in financial conditions since November, we are beginning to see the same pattern in 2024, see the second chart.

The performance has been different in Japan and Europe, where growth expectations have been steady in Japan and revised significantly lower in Europe.

In other words, the lack of a slowdown in 2023, which surprised the Fed, the consensus, and markets, was only a US story, and we are starting to see the same pattern play out again in 2024.

2023 consensus forecasts for US, EU, and Japan
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
2024 consensus forecasts for US, EU, and Japan
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

Download hi-res chart(s)

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