Household formation could decline by 50% from 2024 to 2026 due to deportations and immigration restrictions, see chart below and the Daily Spark here.
A significant decline in household formations has important implications for consumer spending, housing demand and home prices.
Note: Household formation estimates for 2025 and 2026 are based on projected natural population growth and legal immigration. We assumed unauthorized immigration drops to zero. To reflect this, we used natural population growth plus 65% total net migration—based on CBO estimates and Migration Policy Institute’s estimates of 0.9 million rise in unauthorized immigrants in 2023—divided by the average US household size. Sources: Census Bureau, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
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