To gauge the health of the US consumer, we typically examine the monthly data on retail sales from the Census Bureau and the personal consumption expenditures from the BEA. But with the shutdown continuing, we are not getting this government data at the moment.
Instead, we have to look at alternative data from the private sector. Unfortunately, the alternative data is not sending a consistent message about the US consumer.
The daily data for debit and credit card spending from Bloomberg shows a slowdown in recent weeks, see the first chart below. This is in contrast to the Redbook weekly same-store retail sales, which show continued strength, see the second chart.
We are monitoring this divergence closely.
Our updated chart book with private sector data for consumer spending, the labor market, inflation, housing, production and consumer sentiment is available here.
Sources: US Bloomberg Second Measure Consumer Spend, Macrobond, Apollo Chief EconomistSources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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