Extreme Concentration in the S&P 500

Apollo Chief Economist

Our chart book—available here—documents the extreme AI concentration within the S&P 500’s market cap, returns, earnings and capex.

Another measure of market cap concentration
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Performance of tech index relative to S&P 500 higher than tech bubble
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Earnings growth concentrated in the Magnificent 7 and slowing down
Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist
The AI bubble today is bigger than the IT bubble in the 1990s
Note: Data as of July 2025. Top 4 and top 10 companies are by market cap. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Hyperscalers’ capital expenditure share of US private domestic investment has doubled since 2023
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Capital expenditure share of GDP much higher for hyperscalers today vs. telecom companies during dot-com bubble
Note: Hyperscaler companies include Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google. Telecom companies include Level 3 Communications, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Nortel Networks, Verizon, AT&T, Nokia, Cisco Systems, Williams Companies and XO Communications. Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist

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