In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation.
With those headwinds fading, the list of tailwinds keeps growing, and we are starting to worry about overheating in 2026.
The bottom line is that there are significant upside catalysts to growth and inflation over the coming quarters, see list of tailwinds below.
US economic outlook: 10 tailwinds in 2026
1. Trade war uncertainty fading
2. Strong AI and data center spending
3. High AI stock prices boosting wealth effects for consumers
4. Dollar depreciation
5. Falling oil prices
6. The Soccer World Cup
7. One Big Beautiful Bill eliminates federal income tax on overtime pay and tips
8. One Big Beautiful Bill increases the child tax credit to $2,200 dollars per child
9. One Big Beautiful Bill extends 100% expensing for equipment and factories to encourage capex and hiring
10. Tax refunds for households will be larger because the total tax liability for 2026 is lower
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