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Fiscal and inflation worries are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates across the G3, and these concerns are not going away anytime soon, see chart below.
The bottom line is that long-term interest rates are going to stay higher for longer and investors should plan accordingly.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill includes a Trump Account, which is a new tax‑advantaged, long‑term investment account created for children under 18. Accounts can be opened starting July 4, 2026. They are designed to help families build savings for a child’s future such as education, a first home or starting a business using tax‑deferred investment growth, see overview below.
Source: Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Investing in a 60/40 portfolio in 2019 and leaving it would have made it an 80/20 portfolio in 2025 because of the dramatic increase in the stock prices of the Magnificent Seven, see chart below.
Similarly, as hyperscalers issue more debt, the weight of AI is also growing in the public IG index.
The bottom line is that investors in public equities and public credit are more exposed to AI than ever before.
Note: Stock portfolio is invested in the S&P 500 Index, and bond portfolio is invested in the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The median size of newly constructed single-family homes peaked at 2,500 square feet in 2015, and has since then declined steadily, see chart below.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The United Nations is forecasting that the world population will peak in 2085, see chart below.
Sources: United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs (UNDESA), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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From 2022 to 2024, net immigration was around 3 million people per year, and the CBO is forecasting that annual immigration in 2025 and 2026 will be around 500,000 people, see chart below. This has important consequences for labor supply, wage growth and housing demand.
Sources: An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055 | Congressional Budget Office, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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When FOMC members produce their forecasts ahead of Fed meetings, they are also asked how they view the risks to inflation and unemployment.
Currently, FOMC members foresee upside risks to the unemployment rate and inflation, see charts below.
In other words, the Fed continues to forecast stagflation and is concerned that we in 2026 may experience rising inflation and rising unemployment at the same time.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Although the US population continues to grow each year, the number of families with children under 18 reached a peak of around 37 million in 2007 and has declined to approximately 33 million in 2024, see chart below. This reflects demographic changes such as lower birth rates and aging of the population, even as overall population growth continues.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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When interest rates went up, annuity sales more than doubled, see chart below.
The strong demand for annuities continues to generate strong technical demand for credit.
Note: Data from LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute includes total fixed rate annuities and registered indexed linked annuities (RILA). Annualized year-to-date LIMRA fixed annuity and RILA sales through 2Q’25. Sources: LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute, Apollo Chief Economist Register here to watch our 2026 Outlook class on Apollo Academy on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET — eligible for 1 CE credit. In addition to the macro outlook, you’ll also hear asset class perspectives from David Sambur (Private Equity), John Cortese (Credit), Olivia Wassenaar (Infrastructure) and Scott Weiner (Real Estate).
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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After decades in which Germany had a better fiscal situation than Spain, the IMF is now forecasting a reversal in 2026 and 2027, see chart below.
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Register here to watch our 2026 Outlook class on Apollo Academy on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET — eligible for 1 CE credit. In addition to the macro outlook, you’ll also hear asset class perspectives from David Sambur (Private Equity), John Cortese (Credit), Olivia Wassenaar (Infrastructure) and Scott Weiner (Real Estate).
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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