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There are no signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings expectations, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Recessions are occurring less frequently, see chart below. For investors, this means full-blown credit cycles occur less often.
Between recessions, investors should prepare for sector-specific cycles, such as the current downturn in software, where one or two subsectors face distress while the rest of the economy is fine.
The bottom line is that credit opportunities arise not just during recessions, but also when there are sector-specific cycles during expansions. Examples are the energy credit cycle from 2014 to 2016, the brick-and-mortar retail cycle from 2016 to 2019, the commercial real estate cycle from 2022 to 2024 and the software cycle since late 2025.
Sources: Macrobond, NBER, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The share of financial wealth in bank deposits is 51% in Japan, 37% in Germany and 11% in the United States, see chart below.
The bottom line is that there is enormous potential for consumers to put more money into yield products.
Data as of 2024. Sources: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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More than 4,500 objects were launched into space in 2025, up from 600 in 2019.
Note: Objects are defined here as satellites, probes, landers, crewed spacecrafts, and space station flight elements launched into Earth’s orbit or beyond. Sources: Our World in Data, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%, see chart below. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book (available here) documents the growing retirement crisis.
Note: Pension wealth – a measure of the stock of future discounted flows of pension benefits – takes account of these factors. It can be thought of as the lump sum needed at the retirement age to purchase, without paying any fees, an annuity giving the same flow of pension payments as that promised by mandatory retirement-income schemes. Since women’s life expectancy is longer than men’s, pension wealth for women is higher in all countries. Sources: OECD, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Software faces a massive $40 billion maturity wall in 2028, dominated by lower-rated B- credits, exposing the sector to refinancing risks amid AI disruption and rates higher for longer, see chart below.
Note: Data through February 2026. Sources: PitchBook | LCD; Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are forced to sell into falling markets, see chart below.
Sources: FINRA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.
Note: Effects fade over several quarters. Source: Apollo Chief Economist
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart below. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.
Sources: Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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