US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

Demand for housing is slowing because of high home prices, high mortgage rates and declining immigration, see charts below.

Housing supply is steady because existing homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes, since they’re locked into lower mortgage rates and don’t want to take on higher ones. Housing supply of new homes is rising, see again charts below.

The bottom line is that there is downward pressure on home prices coming from falling demand and rising supply.

Traffic of prospective homebuyers
Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Monthly mortgage payment on a new mortgage: $2,813
Note: Calculation of monthly payment using the 30-year purchase loan application size and the 30-year effective rate. Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Apollo Chief Economist
Homebuyer and homebuilder confidence lower because of affordability
Sources: University of Michigan, National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
Household formation slowing down
Note: Household formation estimates for 2025 and 2026 are based on projected natural population growth and legal immigration. We assume unauthorized immigration drops to zero under potential Trump policy scenario. To reflect this, we use natural population growth plus 65% total net migration—based on CBO estimates and Migration Policy Institute’s estimates of 0.9 million rise in unauthorized immigrants in 2023—divided by the average US household size. Sources: Census Bureau, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
International homebuyers
Note: Based on transactions in the 12 months ending March of each year. Sources: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Apollo Chief Economist
Total housing inventory per person is very low
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
New and existing home sales lower than normal because of affordability and low inventory
Sources: NAR, US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
New homes supply indicates slower market turnover
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist

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