Our chart book (available here) looks at why gold prices have increased so much since 2022, and why they have declined more recently.

Reasons why gold prices started going up in 2022:

1. Central bank buying driven by de-dollarization because of sanctions when Russia
   invaded Ukraine
2. Worries about US inflation
3. Strong retail demand in India and China accelerated the upward trend

Likely reason why gold prices have declined recently:

1. Investors needed liquidity as they experienced losses elsewhere in their portfolios

Download high-res chart book

Our latest outlook for public and private markets is available here.

Download high-res chart book

With the proliferation of cashless payments, you would expect the number of bills in circulation to be declining across all denominations. That is indeed the case for $20 bills, see charts below. But the number of $100 bills in circulation keeps rising.

Download high-res charts

The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses.

By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

Download high-res chart

In recent years, employment in the software sector has declined by about 200,000 jobs. The factors driving this decline could include AI, Fed hikes or immigration restrictions, see the first chart below.

Either way, the 200,000 decline in software employment should be compared with the 63 million people who find a new job each year, the 38 million who voluntarily quit their jobs and the 21 million who are laid off, see the second chart below.

The bottom line is that, regardless of what is driving the decline in software employment, it remains insignificant compared to the broader churn in the labor market.

Download high-res charts

The first chart below compares the unemployment rate for the entire US population with the unemployment rate for people ages 20 to 24. It does not show any sign that unemployment among younger workers is structurally higher because of AI.

Similarly, the second chart shows the unemployment rate for US college graduates ages 22 to 27. The unemployment rate has increased for men, but it has recently converged toward the unemployment rate for women. For women, since ChatGPT was released, the unemployment rate has been moving lower, and more recently it has increased slightly again.

The bottom line is that there is no sign that AI is increasing unemployment among younger workers, and there is also no sign that young people or recent college graduates are having a harder time finding jobs at the moment than other demographics.

Download high-res charts