Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI, see for example here, here and here.
But employment declines in AI-exposed industries since 2022 are being overattributed to ChatGPT, see the first chart below.
Since late 2022, those same industries have also been hit by three major overlapping shocks: Fed tightening, trade-war uncertainty and a meaningful slowdown in immigration-driven labor supply.
The bottom line is that a large share of the AI-sensitive sectors of the economy is also rate, trade or immigration-sensitive, see the second chart.
Hence, the slowdown in employment in AI-exposed sectors is likely driven by some combination of all these factors rather than only AI.
Note: Includes employment in professional & business services, office & administrative services, accounting & book keeping, legal services, computer systems design, public relations, publishing, broadcasting, data processing & hosting, credit intermediation, insurance, warehousing & storage, couriers & messengers, transportation support services, telecommunications, medical & diagnostic laboratories and motion picture & sound recording industries. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Apollo Chief Economist, Fed: Educational Exposure to Generative Artificial Intelligence, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/educational-exposure-to-generative-artificial-intelligence-20250226.html, February 2025
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