Hyperscalers and AI‑adjacent issuers are expected to contribute a meaningful share of incremental IG supply in 2026 as they fund large data‑center and AI infrastructure capex.
Estimates of 2026 IG gross issuance from 10 Wall Street banks show wide dispersion, with forecasts ranging from about $1.6 trillion at the low end to $2.25 trillion at the high end, see chart below.
The significant increase in hyperscaler issuance raises questions about who will be the marginal buyer of IG paper.
Will it come from Treasury purchases and hence put upward pressure on the level of rates? Or might it come from mortgage purchases, putting upward pressure on mortgage spreads?
The bottom line is that the volume of fixed-income products coming to market this year is significant and is likely to put upward pressure on rates and credit spreads as we go through 2026.
Note: The banks are MS, GS, Wells Fargo, DB, Bank of America, Mizuho, JP Morgan, BNP, Citi, and Barclays. Sources: Ten different investment banks, Apollo Chief Economist
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