Inflation Scenarios

Apollo Chief Economist

Month-over-month inflation has been rising on average 0.4% for the past three months and 0.3% for the past six months. 

If inflation continues to rise at this pace for the rest of the year, then year-over-year core CPI inflation will increase from currently 3.8% to 4% to 4.5%, see chart below. 

Even if month-over-month increases in core CPI comes in at the historical average of 0.2% for the rest of the year, then year-over-year inflation will still end the year at 3%. 

To get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, core CPI for the rest of the year will have to come in at an unprecedented 0.1% month over month.

The bottom line is that base effects and strong recent readings complicate the Fed’s efforts to get inflation back to its 2% inflation target. Put differently, it will require a sharp, immediate slowdown in consumer spending and capex spending for the Fed to be able to cut rates by the end of this year. 

Inflation will likely be above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the rest of 2024
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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