Daily data for container traffic from China to the US is collapsing, see charts below.
The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods.
In addition, we will soon begin to see higher inflation because there are a significant number of product categories where China is the main provider of certain goods into the US market.
In May, we will begin to see significant layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail—particularly in small businesses such as your independent toy store, your independent hardware store, and your independent men’s clothing store. With 9 million people working in trucking-related jobs and 16 million people working in the retail sector, the downside risks to the economy are significant.
Note: Displays the estimated number of container vessels departing China for the United States, focusing on dry cargo chips. Aggregates data using a 15-day rolling average to reduce short-term volatility and provide a clearer view of broader trends in vessel activity. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief EconomistNote: Represents the aggregated container volume, measured in twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), of vessels departing China for the United Sates over a 15-day rolling period. Accounts for the shipping capacity being utilized, irrespective of the number of vessels. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
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