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The first chart below compares the unemployment rate for the entire US population with the unemployment rate for people ages 20 to 24. It does not show any sign that unemployment among younger workers is structurally higher because of AI.
Similarly, the second chart shows the unemployment rate for US college graduates ages 22 to 27. The unemployment rate has increased for men, but it has recently converged toward the unemployment rate for women. For women, since ChatGPT was released, the unemployment rate has been moving lower, and more recently it has increased slightly again.
The bottom line is that there is no sign that AI is increasing unemployment among younger workers, and there is also no sign that young people or recent college graduates are having a harder time finding jobs at the moment than other demographics.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: BLS, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Oil markets are signaling near-term stress while natural gas markets are signaling near-term oversupply, a combination that is almost never seen, see chart below.
Our chart book looking at energy demand and supply and the Strait of Hormuz is available here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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In our latest US housing outlook, available here, we look at demand and supply in the housing market.
Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Long-term interest rates are normally driven by Fed expectations.
But a premium has emerged, and 10-year rates today should not be at 4.4%, but instead at 3.9%, see chart below.
The sources of the rise in the term premium could be fiscal worries, QT, lower foreign demand or concerns about Fed independence, including the possibility that the Fed could in the future raise the inflation target, leading to greater inflation variability.
The bottom line is that the 10-year yield is 55 bps higher than where it should be, and investors need to think about why.
For more discussion see also Fed papers here, here and here.
Sources: Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Since the trade war began, the dollar has traded weaker than interest-rate differentials would have predicted, see chart below. We expect to see convergence between FX and yield differentials as higher-for-longer rates in the US continue to attract investment from abroad and put upward pressure on the dollar.
Note: 1-year yield differential = 1-year German government bill minus 1-year US T-bill. pp = percentage points. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution, see the first two charts below.
But there is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing. The third, fourth and fifth charts below show that weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel remain strong and weekly data on hotel demand remain strong. A full review of all publicly available daily and weekly indicators shows no signs of demand destruction, see our chart book here.
Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics. The Gulf region will become more stable and even more closely integrated with the global economy. For the Fed, the rise in inflation due to higher oil prices is temporary; once the conflict is over, Fed cuts will be priced in again, and long rates will decline.
The bottom line is that the Iran shock is not big enough to offset the strong tailwinds to the US economy from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Sources: Morning Consult, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: The Truflation US Inflation Index is a daily measure of US inflation based on data from over 30 sources, including major retailers like Amazon and Walmart, and real estate data from sources like Zillow. It tracks price changes from a consumer cost of living perspective across 12 spending categories and is differentiated from the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) by its daily updates, use of digital data and a methodology that leverages blockchain for immutability and decentralization. Sources: Truflation, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Airports included are ATL, LAX, DFW, MIA, ORD, DEN, IAD, SFO, MCO and JFK. Sources: CBP, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt, see chart below.
Sources: US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index, and this is a problem for both institutional and individual investors, see chart below.
With hyperscalers issuing more debt, AI is increasingly also driving returns in bond markets.
And AI currently makes up 60% of investments in venture capital.
The bottom line is that there is one factor driving returns in portfolios, namely AI.
To avoid being overexposed to just one factor, asset allocation should deliberately increase exposure to sectors, regions and strategies whose fundamentals are less directly tied to AI.
Note: Equities include equity funds, company stock and the equity portion of balanced funds. Sources: EBRI, ICI, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Ten trillion dollars in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months, see chart below.
The budget deficit this year is about $2 trillion.
Total gross corporate bond issuance in 2026 is likely to be around $2 trillion because of increased supply from hyperscalers.
Adding it all up, the total amount of investment grade supply coming to the market this year is around $14 trillion.
The bottom line is that the growing supply of investment grade fixed income product is putting upward pressure on rates and credit spreads.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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We are monitoring the unemployment rate in the Philippines and India for any signs that AI is reducing the need for outsourced workers in corporate America. So far, there are no signs of AI replacing offshore workers, see chart below.
Sources: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. (CMIE), Philippine Statistics Authority, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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