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Daily and weekly data for the US economy shows that:
1) Trade policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
2) Economic policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
3) Restaurant bookings remain solid
4) US air travel remains robust
5) Las Vegas visitor volumes and total nights occupied remain solid
6) Same-store retail sales remain solid
7) Hotel bookings remain solid
8) Banks’ loan growth is increasing
9) Bankruptcy filings are stable
10) Broadway attendance and visits to the Statue of Liberty remain at normal levels
Maybe the reason the labor market is softening is because of lower immigration and not because of a slowdown in the broader economy?
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Conference Board, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Department of Homeland Security, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Filings are for companies with more than $50 mn in liabilities. For week ending on September 4th, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: The Broadway League, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: irma.nps.gov, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Daily data for consumer spending shows growth is slowing in discretionaries and on goods that are impacted by tariffs, see tables below.
Our chart book with daily data for consumer spending is available here.
Note: Stable is defined as growth falling between 0.5 to -0.5 standard deviation of the past 90 days, rising momentum is higher than 0.5 standard deviation and falling momentum is -0.5 standard deviation. Past week ends on 29th August 2025. Sources: US Bloomberg Consumer Spending, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Stable is defined as growth falling between 0.5 to -0.5 standard deviation of the past 90 days, rising momentum is higher than 0.5 standard deviation and falling momentum is -0.5 standard deviation. Past week ends on 29th August 2025. Sources: US Bloomberg Consumer Spending, Apollo Chief Economist. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are fewer public companies to invest in, and firms that decide to do an IPO are getting older and older.
In 1999, the median age of IPOs was five years. In 2022, it was eight years, and today, the median age of IPOs has increased to 14 years, see chart below.
The rise in the age of companies going public is not only a result of the Fed raising interest rates in 2022, but also the consequence of more companies wanting to stay private for longer to avoid the burdens of being public.
Combined with the domination of passive investing, failure of active managers and high correlation in public markets, and high concentration in a few stocks, the reality is that there is no alpha left in public markets.
Sources: Jay Ritter, University of Florida, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book—available here—documents the extreme AI concentration within the S&P 500’s market cap, returns, earnings and capex.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Data as of July 2025. Top 4 and top 10 companies are by market cap. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Hyperscaler companies include Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google. Telecom companies include Level 3 Communications, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Nortel Networks, Verizon, AT&T, Nokia, Cisco Systems, Williams Companies and XO Communications. Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees, see chart below.
The bottom line is that the biweekly Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies.
Note: Data is six-survey moving average. The survey is conducted biweekly. Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Splitting employment growth into tariff-impacted sectors and sectors not directly impacted by tariffs shows that the slowdown in job growth is broad-based, and job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is now negative, see chart below.
Note: Sectors impacted by tariffs include manufacturing, mining and logging, construction, wholesales trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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One important reason why growth is structurally lower in Europe is that the European financial system is less developed.
Importantly, securitization accounts for 50% of GDP in the US and 7% in Europe, see also here.
Securitization lowers the costs of borrowing for consumers and firms, enhances credit availability, distributes risk and creates new investment opportunities for investors.
The bottom line is that expanding the securitization market in Europe would unlock significant GDP growth and benefit European consumers, firms and retirees.
For more discussion, see here and here.
Note: US is the sum of ABS and agency and nonagency MBS. Europe includes EU, UK and Switzerland. Sources: SIFMA, AFME, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Demand for housing is slowing because of high home prices, high mortgage rates and declining immigration, see charts below.
Housing supply is steady because existing homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes, since they’re locked into lower mortgage rates and don’t want to take on higher ones. Housing supply of new homes is rising, see again charts below.
The bottom line is that there is downward pressure on home prices coming from falling demand and rising supply.
Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Calculation of monthly payment using the 30-year purchase loan application size and the 30-year effective rate. Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: University of Michigan, National Association of Home Builders, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Household formation estimates for 2025 and 2026 are based on projected natural population growth and legal immigration. We assume unauthorized immigration drops to zero under potential Trump policy scenario. To reflect this, we use natural population growth plus 65% total net migration—based on CBO estimates and Migration Policy Institute’s estimates of 0.9 million rise in unauthorized immigrants in 2023—divided by the average US household size. Sources: Census Bureau, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Based on transactions in the 12 months ending March of each year. Sources: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: NAR, US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Sentiment indicators for consumers and firms are pointing to a weaker employment report for August.
First, consumer sentiment about the outlook for the labor market has historically been a leading indicator for job growth. Using the historical relationship to predict the August employment report suggests that nonfarm payrolls on Friday could come in lower than the 90,000 expected by the consensus, see the first chart below.
Second, small businesses saying that they are experiencing poor sales has also been a leading indicator for the unemployment rate, and the current reading suggests the unemployment rate could rise over the coming months, see the second chart.
The bottom line is that sentiment indicators are suggesting that the labor market will continue to weaken.
Note: University of Michigan’s expected change in unemployment during the next year August numbers are preliminary estimates. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), University of Michigan, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: National Federation of Independent Business, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Sales by European companies in the US are about eight times bigger than US goods imports from Europe, see the first chart.
Similarly, US companies’ sales in Europe are dramatically higher than European goods imports from the US, see the second chart.
The bottom line is that the US and European economies are not only linked via goods trade but also via sales of European companies in the US and sales of US companies in Europe.
Data as of 2022. Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Data as of 2022. Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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