Want it delivered daily to your inbox?
-
With the S&P 500 and credit spreads near record levels, it is clear that there is a lot of confidence in the US economy.
In fact, two pieces of evidence suggest that foreign investors are very excited about the US outlook.
1) US 10-year interest rates are going up during New York trading hours and down outside of New York trading hours, see the first chart below. Simply put, this shows that domestic investors are sellers of US government debt and foreign investors are buyers. Unsurprisingly, foreigners like the higher yields they get in the US, including in private credit.
2) While foreigners were selling US assets in April after Liberation Day, they have come back as big buyers of US assets in May and June, see the second chart. In other words, the “sell America” trade was basically only in April.
The bottom line is that the US is the most dynamic economy in the world with some of the most attractive investment opportunities, and the two charts below show that foreign investors agree.
Note: New York trading hours are 8 am to 5 pm. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar, see the first chart below.
There are also signs that service sector inflation is about to move higher, see the second chart below.
What is critical in Fed Chair Powell’s speech today is how confident he is that inflation is moving down toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Institute for Supply Chain Management (ISM), US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
When households stop paying their student loans, their credit scores will go down. The chart below shows that for households with a FICO score higher than 760, the average credit score change associated with a new student loan delinquency is a decline of 171 points.
Forty-five million people have a student loan, and about 11 million, or 25%, are either in default or more than 90 days delinquent.
The bottom line is that the US consumer is facing headwinds from student loan payments restarting, see also here.
Sources: Credit Score Impacts from Past Due Student Loan Payments – Liberty Street Economics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Consumer spending is under downward pressure from slowing job growth, student loan payments restarting and deportations lowering the number of consumers.
To carefully monitor these headwinds, we have put together this chart book with daily data for consumer spending on discretionary spending/essentials and consumer spending impacted by tariffs/not impacted by tariffs.
We will update and publish this chart book once a week going forward.
Sources: US Bloomberg Second Measure Consumer Spending, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
The US yield curve has started steepening, not only 2s10s but also 10s30s, see the first chart below.
There are three reasons why this is happening:
1. The Fed is cutting rates.
2. If the market thinks the Fed is cutting for political reasons, it puts upward pressure on inflation expectations and ultimately long rates, which also steepens the curve, see the second chart.
3. Growing Treasury issuance is putting upward pressure on long rates, see the third chart.
If Fed Chair Powell, in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, is going to signal less commitment to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the curve will steepen further.
We have put together a chart book looking at this topic, including some of the recent weakness in Treasury auctions. It is available here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Ticker used USSWIT1 Currency. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: The NY Fed measure for the term premium is based on a five-factor, no-arbitrage term structure model. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP, and private consumption is usually the key driver of GDP growth.
But that has changed in 2025.
Over the first half of this year, the contribution to GDP growth from data center investments has been the same as the contribution from consumer spending, see chart below. The contribution from consumer spending has been decreasing, and the contribution from data center construction has been increasing.
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
AI will have a significant impact on our lives and productivity. But that doesn’t mean that the tech companies in the S&P 500 are correctly priced.
The P/E ratio for Tesla is almost 200, and the P/E ratio for Nvidia is around 60. Many software companies are likely to go out of business because of ChatGPT.
The bottom line is that it is not clear that the tech stocks in the S&P 500 are the best choices when investing in the AI theme, and the chart below shows that the situation today is surprisingly similar to the IT bubble in the 1990s.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Solid macro and corporate fundamentals, coupled with persistent institutional demand and limited net new supply, have anchored credit spreads and performance. While downside risks have increased, we expect fundamentals and technicals to remain supportive through year-end. Our latest credit market outlook write-up is available here, and our latest credit market chart book is available here.
Note: Data as of August 10, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
FedEx’s stock price is a leading indicator of global trade, see chart below.
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Container ship departures from China to the US are collapsing, see the first chart.
When consumers cannot get the products that they want from abroad, and the products that are imported are more expensive because of tariffs, the outcome is a slowdown in US consumer spending, see the second chart.
The bottom line is that US consumer spending is facing headwinds from tariffs, relatively high interest rates, student loan payments restarting and deportations lowering the number of consumers.
Note: Displays the estimated number of container vessels departing China for the United States, focusing on dry cargo ships. Aggregates data using a 15-day rolling average to reduce short-term volatility and provide a clearer view of broader trends in vessel activity. Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Census Bureau, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.
Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.
Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.