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The debate over the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory hinges on the underlying drivers of inflation. A decomposition by the San Francisco Fed reveals that the current inflationary environment is largely a demand-side story, with strong economic activity accounting for the majority of price growth. This has direct implications for monetary policy: as long as demand-pull inflation keeps the headline rate above the 2% target, a higher-for-longer interest rate stance is required to bring the economy back into balance.
Conversely, if inflation were primarily a function of supply shocks, the case for demand destruction via high rates would be moot, likely creating space for policy easing. Ultimately, the source of inflation is the critical variable determining the need for further Fed action.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The number of people living in Paris continues to decline. This trend is driven by several factors, including affordability, limited new construction, the proliferation of short-term rentals, the conversion of residential units into office space, and the rise of second homes often owned by international buyers, see chart below.
Sources: French National Institute of Statistics & Economic Studies (INSEE), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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For the first time in more than 50 years, the price of a new single-family home is lower than the average price of an existing single-family home, see chart below.
The downward pressure on new home prices is driven by homebuilders producing smaller homes and providing incentives to homebuyers in a market where affordability is a challenge.
The upward pressure on existing home prices is driven by low inventory as many current homeowners are reluctant to sell because they have locked in low mortgage rates from previous years.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, US Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Germany used to dominate the global production of machinery and technology-intensive goods. But that has changed in 2025.
Germany now buys more capital goods from China than China buys from Germany, see chart below.
The competitive pressure on one of Germany’s core sectors is prompting the country to rethink its trade and industrial policies to reduce its dependence on China and bolster innovation at home.
This is not only happening in Germany. It is also taking place in many other countries.
Many countries are focusing on homeshoring advanced manufacturing capacity, investing in infrastructure, energy, defense, and supply chains.
It is not only deglobalization. We are entering a global industrial renaissance.
Note: Series shown as 12-month moving average. Sources: German Federal Statistics Office (Statistisches Bundesamt), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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When the trade war started in March, the consensus began to revise down expectations for growth.
But as trade deals were signed with different countries over the summer and into the fall, growth expectations have been revised up, see chart below.
Looking ahead, growth is likely to reaccelerate in 2026, driven by lower trade war uncertainty, a lower dollar, and the positive effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which the CBO estimates will boost GDP growth by almost a full percentage point in 2026, mainly because of accelerated depreciation.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Ninety percent of all public fixed income outstanding in the world trades at a yield below 5%, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Inflows into gold ETFs in India in 2025 are on track to be triple the inflows seen in 2024, see chart below.
Note: 2025 data is annualized. Sources: World Gold Council, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Higher-income households have seen their stock holdings rise and their home prices increase. At the same time, the cash flow received in fixed income, including private credit, is near the highest levels in decades.
This strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to lower-income balance sheets is the reason why consumer discretionary stocks in recent months have been outperforming consumer staples, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The arguments for a rebound in the economy over the coming quarters are that (1) Liberation Day was almost eight months ago, (2) fiscal and monetary policy are easy, and (3) easy financial conditions point to a reacceleration in the economy, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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About 5% of the US population is experiencing third-party collections, down from 14% during the GFC, see chart below.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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