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The just-released GDP data shows that the economy was accelerating during the quarter with Liberation Day.
The strength in GDP growth over the summer is inconsistent with the observed slowdown in employment growth over the same period, see chart below.
The economy cannot be on the brink of a recession with a weaker labor market, and at the same time accelerating with stronger GDP growth.
What is likely happening is that job growth is weaker because of AI implementation and lower immigration.
At the same time, the trade war shock is fading into the background, and the probability of a recession is falling.
Following the release of the GDP data, we have revised down the 12-month recession probability to 20%.
With GDP growth at 3.8% and inflation at 2.9% and rising, it is becoming more and more difficult to argue for additional Fed cuts.
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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IMF data for global central bank FX reserves shows that the share of euros in global FX reserves is not going up and remains low at 20%, see chart below.
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Banking sector balance sheets are generally in good shape, and credit growth is positive, driven by large-bank lending.
Delinquency rates are high on credit cards and auto loans. Restarting student loan payments is a headwind to credit quality and credit growth.
The trade war has not yet had much impact on the banking sector or credit growth.
Higher interest rates are putting downward pressure on commercial real estate prices for office, multifamily and healthcare facilities. This remains a problem, in particular for regional banks.
Our updated banking sector chart book is available here.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The consensus probability of a recession over the next 12 months continues to decline and currently stands at 30%, see chart below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, and services inflation is no longer declining, see the first chart below.
At the same time, 72% of the CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation target, see the second chart below.
The bottom line is that inflation is still not under control, and this increases the risk of a steeper curve, a higher term premium, and a rise in TIPS and breakevens, see the third chart below.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: BLS, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The US government currently collects about $350 billion in tariffs at an annualized rate, which corresponds to 18% of annual household income tax payments, see charts below.
The bottom line is that the amount of money collected in tariff revenue is very significant.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Data from PitchBook shows that it takes significantly longer for PE portfolio companies purchased at higher multiples to exit relative to portfolio companies bought at lower multiples, see chart below. Purchase price matters.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Consumers are more sensitive than companies to price changes of imported goods, see also here.
As a result, the composition of US imports has changed dramatically since Liberation Day, with a sharp decline in imports of consumer goods, see chart below.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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A rising share of VC activity globally is AI deals, and 63% of all VC deals in North America are now AI or machine learning, see chart below.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The upward consensus revision to 2026 earnings for the S&P 500 since Liberation Day comes entirely from the Magnificent 7, see chart below.
The outlook for the rest of the economy is much more bearish: Earnings expectations for the S&P 493 have remained suppressed and are not moving higher.
The bottom line is once again that there is an extreme degree of concentration in the S&P 500, and equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.
For more discussion, see also our chart book here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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