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Data from PitchBook shows that it takes significantly longer for PE portfolio companies purchased at higher multiples to exit relative to portfolio companies bought at lower multiples, see chart below. Purchase price matters.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Consumers are more sensitive than companies to price changes of imported goods, see also here.
As a result, the composition of US imports has changed dramatically since Liberation Day, with a sharp decline in imports of consumer goods, see chart below.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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A rising share of VC activity globally is AI deals, and 63% of all VC deals in North America are now AI or machine learning, see chart below.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The upward consensus revision to 2026 earnings for the S&P 500 since Liberation Day comes entirely from the Magnificent 7, see chart below.
The outlook for the rest of the economy is much more bearish: Earnings expectations for the S&P 493 have remained suppressed and are not moving higher.
The bottom line is once again that there is an extreme degree of concentration in the S&P 500, and equity investors are dramatically overexposed to AI.
For more discussion, see also our chart book here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The daily data for consumer spending has slowed down modestly in recent weeks, and the slowdown is more pronounced in sectors impacted by tariffs, see charts below and in this chart book.
Sources: US Bloomberg Second Measure Consumer Spend, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Stable is defined as growth falling between 0.5 to -0.5 standard deviation of the past 90 days, rising momentum is higher than 0.5 standard deviation and falling momentum is -0.5 standard deviation. Past week ends on September 5, 2025. Sources: US Bloomberg Consumer Spend, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The amount of money in passive investing continues to grow, see charts below.
There are three consequences of this development:
1) Reduced market efficiency and price discovery
2) Increased market concentration and volatility
3) Growing correlation and systemic risk
For more discussion, see here.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is rising for men and falling for women, see chart below.
Note: This data is based on IPUMS-CPS microdata (monthly CPS basic 2000 – present). Sample restricted to 22–27-year-olds with BA+, unemployment rates weighted by CPS survey weights and smoothed with 3 month rolling average. Source: Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are currently 7.4 million unemployed people and 7.2 million job openings, see chart below.
It is the first time since 2021 when we have had more unemployed than job openings.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are fiscal challenges in most countries, and government debt levels, yield levels and the term premium are rising across the G7, see charts below.
This raises questions about debt sustainability and the ability of governments to repay their debt, particularly in Europe and Japan, where growth is structurally weak due to demographics and years of policy choices that have dampened growth.
What are the consequences if the risk-free asset is no longer risk-free?
1) Higher government borrowing costs and, as a result, higher borrowing costs for consumers and firms.
2) Loss of monetary policy effectiveness, as cuts by the central bank don’t lower long-term interest rates.
3) Financial instability, because the risk-free rate is used for valuing assets and pricing risk.
In extreme cases, the central bank may decide to do YCC or QE to lower long-term interest rates. But this comes at the risk of a dramatic depreciation of the currency, as the central bank essentially intervenes to support fiscal policy and, as a result, the central bank loses credibility among investors.
For more discussion see here, here and here.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: The NY Fed measure for the term premium is based on a five-factor, no-arbitrage model. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Daily and weekly data for the US economy shows that:
1) Trade policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
2) Economic policy uncertainty is returning to more normal levels
3) Restaurant bookings remain solid
4) US air travel remains robust
5) Las Vegas visitor volumes and total nights occupied remain solid
6) Same-store retail sales remain solid
7) Hotel bookings remain solid
8) Banks’ loan growth is increasing
9) Bankruptcy filings are stable
10) Broadway attendance and visits to the Statue of Liberty remain at normal levels
Maybe the reason the labor market is softening is because of lower immigration and not because of a slowdown in the broader economy?
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Conference Board, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: US Department of Homeland Security, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Filings are for companies with more than $50 mn in liabilities. For week ending on September 4th, 2025. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: The Broadway League, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: irma.nps.gov, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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