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With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are forced to sell into falling markets, see chart below.
Sources: FINRA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book (available here) looks at the simulated effects of $100 oil prices on the economy.
Note: Effects fade over several quarters. Source: Apollo Chief Economist
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, see the first chart below. The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in wages and wealth, see the second and third chart.
Sources: Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Dallas Fed data show net unauthorized immigration flows turning negative, meaning more individuals are leaving the US than entering, see chart below.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing the cost and complexity of launching a company, see chart below. As these firms scale, they will create jobs, underscoring that AI is likely to strengthen, not disrupt, the US labor market.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Single-stock implied volatility continues to trade at a historically wide premium to index volatility, reflecting structurally lower implied correlation and persistent demand for idiosyncratic protection. Investors appear less concerned about macro shocks and more focused on widening dispersion between winners and losers in an increasingly concentrated equity market grappling with the implications of AI.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The Chicago Business Barometer for February showed strong improvements across production, employment, new orders and deliveries, see chart below. Perhaps we are underestimating the positive effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which took effect on January 1. The CBO estimates that it will boost GDP growth by 0.9% in 2026, and the chart below suggests that nonfarm payrolls in February could be significantly stronger than the 58,000 currently expected by consensus.
Sources: Market News International, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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With low immigration and strong tailwinds to growth from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautifull Bill, it is not a surprise that wage growth is rising for job switchers, see chart below.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil trade, making any disruption an immediate risk to energy prices and macro outcomes. Our chart book, available here, examines energy demand and supply, as well as the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis, based on Vortexa tanker tracking and Panama Canal, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: Assumptions: If oil prices rise by $50/bbl in 1Q26. Sources: Bloomberg SHOK model, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Foreign demand for US assets remains very strong, see chart below.
Note: Data is a 12-month rolling sum. Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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