Apollo is pleased to release its second edition of Apollo Perspectives written by Chief Economist Torsten Sløk. In this white paper, Sløk takes an in-depth look at where 10-year Treasury yields will be in 2023 from the perspective of four different scenarios: a soft landing, back to secular stagnation, return to the 1970s, and retiring baby boomers.
The piece draws the conclusion that 10-year interest rates are likely to first go up over the coming quarters and then go down in 2023 as the Fed raises rates and financial conditions tighten.
“The Fed is about to start a hiking cycle, and markets are beginning to discuss what will happen to long-term interest rates,” writes Sløk. “The most likely scenario is that the Fed will overtighten, which could come together with turbulence and volatility in equity and credit markets.”
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