The number of people going to Broadway shows is rising, and the gap to 2019 continues to close, see chart below. Household balance sheets remain strong, job growth is still strong, and wage growth is strong, and indicators for air travel, hotel occupancy rates, restaurant bookings, and concerts continue to show that the consumer services sector is red hot, see also our attached PDF with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy.
The Fed is raising interest rates to slow down growth, and so far, it is only the interest-rate sensitive components of GDP (housing, autos, capex) that are responding. The services sector makes up 80% of GDP, and it is not yet showing signs of slowing down.
The forward P/E ratio for the S&P500 is currently 15, a level last seen in 2019 when inflation was 1.8%.
Inflation today is 8.2%, and the Fed is raising rates aggressively to slow down GDP growth and slow down growth in the “E” in the P/E ratio.
The Fed does not worry about how much or how little the S&P500 has declined since the peak in 2021. In other words, it is not important to the Fed if the P/E ratio today is 10, 15, or 20.
What the Fed worries about is that inflation at 8.2% is much higher than the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. And with the Fed stepping hard on the brakes, the downside risks to equity and credit markets remain significant.
The goods sector of the US economy (housing, autos, capex spending, etc.) is more sensitive to interest rates, and Fed hikes are having a more negative effect on the S&P500 than on GDP because the goods sector makes up a much smaller share of GDP, see chart below. In addition, the service sector which is most vulnerable to higher interest rates is tech, and the tech sector has also responded very negatively to Fed hikes. The bottom line is that it is not surprising that Fed hikes have had a more negative effect on the stock market than on GDP.
People age 55 and older are getting more worried about having a comfortable retirement, likely driven by covid, high inflation, and a falling stock market, see chart below.
The share of loans rated B- in the leveraged loan index has increased from 13% in 2017 to 29% today, see chart below. The implication is that if there is a recession with a spike in the unemployment rate, then CLOs will be more vulnerable.
The charts below show the maturity wall for the individual sectors in the IG and HY indexes. The maturity wall seems particularly steep for highly leveraged technology companies in both IG and HY.
Last week, headline inflation came in higher than expected at 8.2% (the consensus had expected it to fall to 8.1%). Core inflation unfortunately rose to 6.6% from 6.3%. This was not good news for the Federal Reserve that is actively trying to cool the economy down with the goal of lowering inflation. However, given the firm commitment the Fed has made to getting inflation down to 2%, it’s important to remember that this current storm is temporary. We should continue to keep in mind the long perspective that eventually inflation will come down again. The uncertainty centers around the timing. How long will it take for inflation to fall in line with the central bank’s target? Meanwhile, investors should ask themselves: How long will this window of opportunity be open?
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The level of government debt outstanding limits how much the Fed can raise rates. With total debt held by the public at $24.3trn, the 2% increase in the entire yield curve over the past six months will increase debt servicing costs by $486bn, see chart below. With net interest expenses expected on government debt in FY2023 at $442bn, the total annual debt servicing costs would rise to roughly $1trn. The bottom line for markets is that rising interest rates are becoming a significant drag on US GDP growth. For more, see also links here: Debt to the Penny, Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding and CBO projections.
The goods sector makes up 20% of US GDP and the services sector makes up 80%.
The goods sector of the economy is slowing down because growth in goods production and goods sales was very high during covid, and the goods sector consists of the more interest rate-sensitive components of GDP such as housing, autos, and capex.
The service sector, on the other hand, such as air travel, hotels, restaurants, concerts, sporting events, continues to show no signs of slowing down.
These diverging trends between goods and services are also visible in the inflation data we got earlier this week, see chart below. Goods inflation is slowing. Services inflation is rising.
The Fed is waiting for the services sector to slow down, which is not happening yet, see also our Slowdown Watch PDF with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy.
