Not only are default rates trending lower, but the number of distressed exchanges has also started declining, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
When discussing affordability, it is important to note that while the CPI price level has increased 26% since 2019, wages have increased 30%, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Over the past six months, the yen has traded much weaker than interest rate differentials alone would suggest, indicating that growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal position in a rising rate environment are starting to dominate.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Despite the turbulence surrounding Liberation Day in April, foreign investors ended up buying more US assets in 2025 than in 2024, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
AI-related companies now represent an increasing share of investment-grade indexes, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
With a steep yield curve, governments are issuing more short‑dated paper to minimize debt‑servicing costs. As a result, the average maturity of the sovereign bond index is declining rapidly, see chart below.
The consequence is that monetary and fiscal policy have become more tightly linked, because a lower maturity makes government interest expenses more sensitive to central bank rate decisions.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Germany’s exports to China have declined relative to GDP, while China’s exports to Germany have remained stable relative to GDP, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Note: The Daily Spark will resume on December 26.
Fiscal and inflation worries are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates across the G3, and these concerns are not going away anytime soon, see chart below.
The bottom line is that long-term interest rates are going to stay higher for longer and investors should plan accordingly.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
The One Big Beautiful Bill includes a Trump Account, which is a new tax‑advantaged, long‑term investment account created for children under 18. Accounts can be opened starting July 4, 2026. They are designed to help families build savings for a child’s future such as education, a first home or starting a business using tax‑deferred investment growth, see overview below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Investing in a 60/40 portfolio in 2019 and leaving it would have made it an 80/20 portfolio in 2025 because of the dramatic increase in the stock prices of the Magnificent Seven, see chart below.
Similarly, as hyperscalers issue more debt, the weight of AI is also growing in the public IG index.
The bottom line is that investors in public equities and public credit are more exposed to AI than ever before.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
