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            The Duration Mismatch in the Banking Sector Is a Risk to Financial Stability

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Home December 2025

The Duration Mismatch in the Banking Sector Is a Risk to Financial Stability

A bank takes overnight deposits from checking accounts and lends them out for the next 10 years. This fundamental mismatch between the duration of assets and liabilities in the banking sector is a major problem, particularly in a world where more and more households and firms can withdraw and transfer funds simply by pulling out their iPhones.

For insurance companies, the duration of liabilities is different. In particular, life insurance companies owe policyholders a stream of future cash flows over the next 10 years. As a result, assets and liabilities are duration-matched in insurance firms.

The bottom line is that, in a world where mobile banking is more and more widespread, the duration mismatch in the banking sector is a growing risk, and every dollar that leaves the banking sector and goes to other long-term suitable sources of financing for firms and households makes the financial system more stable.

The duration of liabilities in banks is very different from the duration of liabilities in insurance companies
Note: Policyholder liabilities include life insurance reserves, pension entitlements, and miscellaneous liabilities. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of United States, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Default Rates Are Falling

If the recent high-profile defaults were the beginning of a broader credit cycle, then default rates would be going up.

Instead, default rates are falling, and earnings expectations are revised higher, see the first two charts below.

At the same time, the Atlanta Fed expects GDP growth to come in at 3.8%, significantly above the CBO’s 2% estimate of long-term growth for the US.

The bottom line is that the US economy remains incredibly resilient.

Yes, the labor market shows slower job growth, but the observed slowdown in employment growth is not driven by weaker labor demand but by weaker labor supply because of tighter immigration restrictions, including higher fees on H-1Bs. The Fed has made that clear in this paper. In addition, low jobless claims and the recent rise in the daily data for job openings confirms that the slower job growth is not driven by weaker labor demand but by lower labor supply, see the third chart.

Combined with dollar depreciation, lower oil prices and the One Big Beautiful Bill starting to take effect in a few weeks, the upside risks to growth and inflation are significant, see the fourth chart.

In short, a data dependent Fed would come to the conclusion that it should not cut interest rates next week.

Credit metrics are improving
Sources: Moody’s Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
More S&P 500 firms are raising earnings guidance
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Daily jobs postings have moved higher in recent weeks
Sources: Indeed, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
If the Fed cuts rates, the upside risks to inflation will intensify
Sources: BLS, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Swaption Volatility Remains Remarkably Low Despite Ongoing Fed Debate

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Hybrid in Action: Delivering Bespoke Capital Solutions in a New Market Paradigm

Sitting between private debt and equity, hybrid investments are increasingly in demand as companies continue to face higher borrowing costs, limited access to traditional debt and volatile capital markets. This article, authored by Jason Scheir, Head of Hybrid Value at Apollo, showcases this strategy through three real-world examples.

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Key Takeaways

  • Flexible Capital for Growth: A preferred equity investment enabled an entrepreneur’s fast-growing company to scale without taking on more debt or ceding control.
  • Sponsor Liquidity with Downside Protection: A senior investment in a continuation vehicle supported a sponsor seeking liquidity options for investments in two well-positioned businesses.
  • Balance Sheet Support: A hybrid solution gave a liquidity-constrained public company access to equity-like capital with limited dilution.

Hybrid capital can deliver equity-like returns with credit-like downside protection. Apollo’s approach uses structured features to help both issuers and investors navigate uncertain markets.

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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


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This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

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Top 5 Risks in 2026

There are always upside and downside risks to the outlook. Below are five things we are watching going into 2026.

1. The US economy starts re-accelerating because of the fading trade war shock and the One Big Beautiful Bill, and inflation begins to move higher from an already high level.

2. The global industrial renaissance boosts global growth with more and more countries focusing on homeshoring advanced manufacturing capacity, investing in infrastructure, energy, defense and supply chains.

3. The new Fed Chair lowers interest rates purely for political reasons.

4. AI bubble bursting results in a major correction of Mag 7 equity prices and slows capex spending and high-end consumer spending. 

5. Dramatic increase in the supply of fixed income in 2026, coming from growing government deficits and hyperscaler issuance, puts upward pressure on rates and credit spreads.

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Swaption Volatility Remains Remarkably Low Despite Ongoing Fed Debate

Swaption volatility remains very low despite significant debate about what the Fed will do at its next meeting, see chart below. In other words, the market is not expecting sharp moves in yields over the next three months.

USD swaption volatility remains very low
Tickers: USSNAC10 and USSNAC2. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Significant Fiscal Boost Coming in 2026

The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill will boost GDP growth next year by 0.9%, see chart below. The main factor in the bill is that, starting January 1, 2026, businesses can immediately deduct capital expenses, such as investments in equipment and R&D. This is a major tailwind for the economy in 2026.

The CBO estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill will boost GDP growth by 0.9% in 2026
Sources: CBO, H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Apollo Chief Economist

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European Firms Have a Higher Share of Tangible Assets than US Firms

European companies typically allocate more of their resources to tangible assets, such as property, plant and equipment, resulting in a higher tangible asset ratio than US companies. In contrast, US firms invest more heavily in intangible assets like software, brand value and intellectual property rights, see chart below.

European companies have a higher tangible asset ratio
Note: Tangible assets include fixed tangible assets like plants, equipment and property. Sources: Financial accounts of United Sates, FRB, Haver Analytics, EIB Investment Survey 2024, Apollo Chief Economist

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