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Home April 2024

Most of the US Economy Is in Private Markets

Most of the time in financial markets goes with talking about the S&P 500.

But public markets and public companies are only a small part of the economy.

Total global employment in the S&P 500 companies is 29 million, and total employment in the US economy is 158 million, see chart below.

Put differently, more than 80% of total employment in the US economy is outside the S&P 500 companies.

This is consistent with our recent Daily Spark, in which we showed that 87% of firms in the US with revenue greater than $100 million are private.

The bottom line is that the vast majority of the US economy is in private markets.

Employment in S&P 500 companies is 18% of total US employment
Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Goods Inflation Rising

Rising energy prices combined with the ongoing rebound in the manufacturing sector increase the likelihood that we could see an increase in goods inflation over the coming months, see chart below.

Manufacturing PMI prices paid indicates rebound in goods inflation
Source: BLS, ISM, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Many More Private Firms in Europe

In financial markets, a lot of conversations are about public companies, but the reality is that in Europe, 96% of firms with revenue greater than $100 million are private, see chart below.

In Europe, 96% of firms with revenue greater than $100 million are private
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater then $100 million by count.

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48% of Americans Have a Passport

Forty-eight percent of Americans have a passport, up from 3% in 1989, see chart below.

48% of Americans have a passport
Source: US Department of State, Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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What Does a “Higher for Longer” Rate Environment Mean for Credit Markets?

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell and stronger-than-expected economic data are bringing financial markets around to a view that we at Apollo have been voicing since last year: It’s likely that interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

In this paper, we discuss what a “higher for longer” interest rate scenario might mean for public and private credit markets.

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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.

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Fed Pivot Triggered a Rebound in Coverage Ratios for IG and HY

Interest coverage ratios have rebounded for both investment grade credit and high yield credit. This was driven by continued strong earnings and also the Fed pivot last year, which triggered not only expectations of lower rates but also a strong rally in IG and HY spreads, see charts below.

IG ICR rebounding in Q1 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
HY ICR rebounding in Q1 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Commodity Price Outlook

Commodity prices are moving higher driven by the following:

1) Reaccelerating US growth

2) Geopolitical uncertainty

3) Segmentation of global trade, and

4) Strong AI demand for energy

Our latest outlook for energy prices, agriculture prices, and metals prices is available here.

Title
Commodity prices moving higher driven by strong US growth, geopolitical uncertainty, segmentation of global trade, and AI demand for energy
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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Building Resilience: Selecting the Right Assets for an Alternatives Portfolio

Volatility levels are rising and correlation among asset classes is making traditional portfolio diversification techniques less effective. In this white paper and on-demand class, we discuss how alternative investments can be used to help mitigate volatility, and how investors can make portfolios more resilient by focusing on factors such as cash-flow generation and valuation.

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Key Takeaways

  • Traditional portfolio diversification techniques are becoming less effective as correlations among asset classes heighten.
  • Persistent upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth point to continued market volatility in the remainder of 2024 and beyond.
  • Amid market uncertainty, investors are turning to private assets to diversify portfolios and help manage volatility.
  • But not all alternatives are created equal. Investors can create resilience by targeting assets with certain inherent traits and exposure to specific investment factors.
  • We believe that focusing on cash-flow generating assets at attractive valuations can maximize the volatility-dampening effect of an alternatives portfolio and enhance long-term risk-adjusted potential returns.
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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.

Additional information may be available upon request.

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China: Housing Slowing

The housing slowdown in China continues, see chart below.

China residential transactions falling
Source: NBS China, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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PE Secondaries: Evolving Landscape Can Expand Opportunities

Private-equity secondaries have developed into a core alternatives allocation for many investors. Led by the expanding opportunity in GP-led secondaries and heightened liquidity needs, we believe the secondaries market for PE will grow dramatically over the next few years.

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Key Takeaways

  • Secondaries are now a core allocation for sophisticated private markets investors.
  • General Partner (GP)-led secondaries and continued private markets maturation will likely continue to drive overall secondary market growth and innovation particularly given the different return profile of GP-leds than traditional Limited Partner (LP) LP-led secondaries. We believe the market will double or triple in size in the next five years.
  • Distinctive attributes that drive differentiation for secondaries as a strategy—and differentiation among managers—will likely continue to persist.
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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

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