Going to a Broadway show can cost up to $200, and the latest weekly data shows that consumers are still happy to pay this discretionary expense, see the first chart below.

More broadly, GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.0%, and the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for the third quarter is 3.2%, see the second and third chart.

Why is the economy so strong? Because of lower interest rate sensitivity for households and firms because of locked-in low interest rates, strong AI spending, and strong fiscal spending driven by the CHIPS Act, the IRA, and the Infrastructure Act. Combined with high stock prices and tight credit spreads, these forces are offsetting the long and variable lags of monetary policy.

See our chart book with daily and weekly indicators.

Download high-res chart(s)

Healthcare, financials, and consumer staples outperform during Fed cut episodes that end with a soft landing, see chart below.

Download high-res chart

Voter turnout rates differ dramatically across states, with a 70% participation rate in Oregon and 38% in West Virginia, see chart below.

Download high-res chart

Prime brokerage borrowing is now at $2.3 trillion, up from around $1 trillion before the pandemic, see chart below.

Download high-res chart

Data centers use 26% of Virginia’s total power consumption, and there is a significant need for long-term investments in energy to power the ongoing AI revolution, see map below.

Download map

The share of land owned by the federal government varies dramatically across states, see chart below.

Download high-res chart

The time it takes for applications for US citizenship has declined from 12 months to four months, which contributes to accelerating immigration growth at the moment.

Download high-res chart

The incoming data continues to remain robust. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September versus a consensus expectation of 150,000 jobs, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, wage growth is solid and remains sticky, job openings are going up, and the ISM services reading is also strong.

Why is the economy still strong? Because of lower sensitivity to Fed hikes for consumers and firms with locked-in low interest rates. Because of strong AI spending. Because of strong fiscal and defense spending. These tailwinds are countering the long and variable lags of monetary policy. And now the Fed is cutting rates, which is boosting growth and inflation further. Combined with very easy financial conditions, the bottom line remains that rates will stay higher for longer.

Our chart book with daily and weekly data is available here.

Download high-res chart(s)

When FOMC members put together their forecasts, they are asked about the risks to their projections.

You would think that the risks to your forecast were symmetric over time. But, as the chart below shows, FOMC members are always much more worried about the risk that the unemployment rate is rising than the risk that the unemployment rate is falling. 

This preference for unemployment staying low suggests that policymakers would prefer to cut interest rates too much too quickly to minimize the risk that the unemployment rate will move higher. Which of course increases the risk that inflation starts to move up again.

Download high-res chart

The share of the population using the internet in India has increased over the past decade from 14% to 52%, see chart below.

Download high-res chart