The consensus expects nonfarm payrolls for September to come in at 50,000, and I think that is too pessimistic. The charts below with incoming daily and weekly data for September show that:

1) Trade policy uncertainty is improving

2) Economic policy uncertainty is improving

3) Consumer expectations to business conditions are improving

4) Consumers are less worried about losing their jobs

5) Corporate capex plans are improving, and jobless claims are still low

6) The daily TSA data for the number of people traveling on airplanes is strong

7) Data for the number of people going to Broadway shows, the movies and visiting the Statue of Liberty is strong

8) Weekly data for same-store retail sales is strong

9) Weekly data for bank lending is accelerating

10) Weekly bankruptcy filings are starting to trend lower

11) Weekly data for business formation is still strong

12) There are significant upside risks to inflation in the regional Fed surveys and in ISM services price paid

Combined with the Atlanta Fed expecting GDP growth in the third quarter at 3.9%, the bottom line is that the economy continues to do better than the consensus expects, and the labor market has likely weakened because of lower immigration and perhaps also AI implementation.

With continued strong growth and upside pressures on inflation from tariffs, immigration restrictions, and the declining dollar, the FOMC should really be talking about rate hikes rather than rate cuts.

Our chart book with high-frequency indicators for the US economy is available here.

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The US dollar has depreciated almost 10% since the beginning of the year, and the Fed’s model for the US economy finds that a 10% depreciation results in a 0.3% boost to inflation. Put differently, there is not only upward pressure on inflation from tariffs and immigration restrictions but also from the ongoing dollar depreciation, see chart below.

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The all-in yield for public IG is now below 5%, and the all-in yield for public HY is below 6.5%, see chart below.

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There is a need for additional green investment in the EU of 400 to 500 billion euros by 2030, see chart below.

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The just-released GDP data shows that the economy was accelerating during the quarter with Liberation Day.

The strength in GDP growth over the summer is inconsistent with the observed slowdown in employment growth over the same period, see chart below.

The economy cannot be on the brink of a recession with a weaker labor market, and at the same time accelerating with stronger GDP growth.

What is likely happening is that job growth is weaker because of AI implementation and lower immigration.

At the same time, the trade war shock is fading into the background, and the probability of a recession is falling.

Following the release of the GDP data, we have revised down the 12-month recession probability to 20%.

With GDP growth at 3.8% and inflation at 2.9% and rising, it is becoming more and more difficult to argue for additional Fed cuts.

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IMF data for global central bank FX reserves shows that the share of euros in global FX reserves is not going up and remains low at 20%, see chart below.

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Banking sector balance sheets are generally in good shape, and credit growth is positive, driven by large-bank lending.

Delinquency rates are high on credit cards and auto loans. Restarting student loan payments is a headwind to credit quality and credit growth.

The trade war has not yet had much impact on the banking sector or credit growth.

Higher interest rates are putting downward pressure on commercial real estate prices for office, multifamily and healthcare facilities. This remains a problem, in particular for regional banks.

Our updated banking sector chart book is available here.

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The consensus probability of a recession over the next 12 months continues to decline and currently stands at 30%, see chart below.

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Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, and services inflation is no longer declining, see the first chart below.

At the same time, 72% of the CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation target, see the second chart below.

The bottom line is that inflation is still not under control, and this increases the risk of a steeper curve, a higher term premium, and a rise in TIPS and breakevens, see the third chart below.

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The US government currently collects about $350 billion in tariffs at an annualized rate, which corresponds to 18% of annual household income tax payments, see charts below.

The bottom line is that the amount of money collected in tariff revenue is very significant.

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