The median size of newly constructed single-family homes peaked at 2,500 square feet in 2015, and has since then declined steadily, see chart below.
Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
The United Nations is forecasting that the world population will peak in 2085, see chart below.
From 2022 to 2024, net immigration was around 3 million people per year, and the CBO is forecasting that annual immigration in 2025 and 2026 will be around 500,000 people, see chart below. This has important consequences for labor supply, wage growth and housing demand.
In this episode of The View from Apollo, Chief Economist Torsten Slok lays out the key forces shaping the 2026 macro landscape. He explains why the US economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite pronounced headwinds and how AI-driven investment, fiscal policy and easing energy prices are setting the stage for a potential rebound. Access the complete suite of Apollo’s 2026 Outlook content, from Torsten’s macro view to perspectives across asset classes and regions, at apollo.com/outlook.
As we head into 2026, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok reflects on the surprising strength of the US economy — and what lies ahead. In this in-depth outlook, Torsten identifies the major forces shaping the macro landscape, from persistent inflation and geopolitical headwinds to the accelerating impact of AI and fiscal stimulus
Key Takeaways
Torsten brings together the analytical clarity of his Daily Spark blog with new, forward-looking insights to paint a detailed picture of what’s next for the US economy and capital markets.
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When FOMC members produce their forecasts ahead of Fed meetings, they are also asked how they view the risks to inflation and unemployment.
Currently, FOMC members foresee upside risks to the unemployment rate and inflation, see charts below.
In other words, the Fed continues to forecast stagflation and is concerned that we in 2026 may experience rising inflation and rising unemployment at the same time.
Although the US population continues to grow each year, the number of families with children under 18 reached a peak of around 37 million in 2007 and has declined to approximately 33 million in 2024, see chart below. This reflects demographic changes such as lower birth rates and aging of the population, even as overall population growth continues.
When interest rates went up, annuity sales more than doubled, see chart below.
The strong demand for annuities continues to generate strong technical demand for credit.
Register here to watch our 2026 Outlook class on Apollo Academy on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET — eligible for 1 CE credit. In addition to the macro outlook, you’ll also hear asset class perspectives from David Sambur (Private Equity), John Cortese (Credit), Olivia Wassenaar (Infrastructure) and Scott Weiner (Real Estate).
After decades in which Germany had a better fiscal situation than Spain, the IMF is now forecasting a reversal in 2026 and 2027, see chart below.
Register here to watch our 2026 Outlook class on Apollo Academy on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET — eligible for 1 CE credit. In addition to the macro outlook, you’ll also hear asset class perspectives from David Sambur (Private Equity), John Cortese (Credit), Olivia Wassenaar (Infrastructure) and Scott Weiner (Real Estate).
Prime brokerage and repo borrowings have essentially doubled over the past two years, see chart below.
Register here to watch our 2026 Outlook class on Apollo Academy on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET — eligible for 1 CE credit. In addition to the macro outlook, you’ll also hear asset class perspectives from David Sambur (Private Equity), John Cortese (Credit), Olivia Wassenaar (Infrastructure) and Scott Weiner (Real Estate).
